Conflict in the Middle East is pushing input costs up and adding borrowing pressure across New Zealand. Most farms will absorb it. A growing few won't have to—because they've already built the systems to respond before the shocks arrive.
So, it’s going to be another year of difficult volatility in NZ dairy.
In the midst of what was feeling like a good season, conflict has erupted in the Middle East, hitting farmers where it already hurts: input costs. Fuel prices are spiking (diesel alone up nearly 43%, Stats NZ), and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs & Trade notes that fertiliser is our most exposed imported good from the region—a fifth of our global supply comes from Saudi Arabia (MFAT).
This all has a familiar flow-on effect: increased costs, threats to profitability, borrowing cost pressures, stress.
But, not all farms are affected equally. Here’s why.
NZ dairy farmers have always operated inside uncertainty beyond their control. As Rob Steele from Neer Enterprises says, it’s common to be “price takers”.
"A dairy business is actually not all that complicated, but you don't have control over probably some of your biggest variables,” he said.
“The milk price is the milk price. Being subject to that without being able to influence it in any way has created years where we’ve had very good surpluses and years where we’ve had losses. So it’s like riding a roller coaster in some ways.”
Most farms absorb volatility as it comes, with farmers handling major financial decisions reactively. Sometimes farms do well in these situations, sometimes the shocks hit hard.
This is the structural default in New Zealand. When there's no forward-looking data available, the only option is relying on data that's already out of date. Decisions can still be made, but without the full picture. The problem here is that when volatility moves too far, or too often, that kind of guesswork can leave a farm exposed.
Milk Price Volatility
Neer had tried two external accountants before Brett, and neither worked out. When Brett Wooffindin from Sidekick Rural came along around 2018/19, one of the first things he did was sit down to truly understand the business—its risks, its opportunities, what data it was capturing, and where the gaps were.
In those early days, Neer already ran a structured meeting rhythm—indeed, quarterly P&L meetings had been standard for the family for decades. What changed with Brett joining the farm team was that forward-looking dimension, adding scenarios, benchmarking, and new margin protection protection strategies.
Learn more: What’s the Real Value-Add in Agri Advisory? Accountability
When the current Middle East conflict escalated and costs started to climb, Brett didn’t need to wait for clients to call him. He was using Figured Insights to model possible impacts across his client base, looking for who it would impact the most.
“We can go there and model what would happen if fertiliser went up by 70%, or what would happen if fuel was going up by 100% next financial year,” he said, “and identify those clients who have probably got a bit of exposure to that type of cost structure.”
This is a significant shift from how most NZ dairy farms operate—working from planned inputs rather than reacting to cost shocks. Neer mirrors this on the farm side too, maintaining a clear view of their break-evens two or three seasons out, so that when the inputs move, Brett and the family can quickly assess how this changes what they already planned.
For a dairy farm, any talk of cashflow forecasting soon focuses on milk price risk.
This is where Brett introduced Neer to Milk Price Protection—a solution offered by Figured and StoneX that sets a floor if the milk price falls, while retaining the option to take the market price if it goes up. It helped resolve the tension Rob described as wanting margin protection “without sitting staring at a computer screen every 10 seconds wondering where the milk price is going.”
Then, a written hedging policy ties it all together: a single page covering the farm’s risk exposure, how a significant milk price movement would affect the business, and what tools are available to manage that. Essentially, it’s a framework for making deliberate decisions rather than reactive ones. Together, the team reviews this every three to six months.
Learn more: Milk Price Protection
For a high-performing team like Neer's, the result of this structured relationship isn’t that volatility has disappeared. They're taking on the same rising input costs as everyone else. What's different is that they have a framework for planning around it, an expert in their corner helping them interpret what’s happening in the market, and they’re proactively getting ahead of the risks.
“There’s no reason why volatility needs to be impacting your business today,” said Brett.
“Most of our better clients—volatility doesn't affect them at all because they accept it. They manage it where they can. Where they can't, they're aware of where it's going and they're making decisions earlier to stop the impact of that later.”
A year-round, forward-looking advisory relationship has enabled Neer Enterprises to take that next step, and see the difference it makes.
Here’s how to build your own version.
Rob and Brett recently sat down with us to talk about their partnership, where it came from, and the specific structures and steps that make it a success. Learn more about these by downloading our free guide, “Navigating the Road Ahead: A Guide to Building Proactive Advisory Teams in NZ Dairy.”
Or catch up on the full webinar here.